I don't think any tax analysis comparing today versus more than 10 years from now is worth anything. There is absolutely no way of knowing what the tax rate structure will look like beyond 10 years - and 10 may be stretching it a bit. Taxes must be paid eventually and plans based on tax rates could cause a lot of heartache when the world changes around us.Current decisions need to be made based on guesses about the future, including taxes. Presumably taxes will be different in 10 years, but unless there is a good reason for expecting personal taxes to be different (e.g., lower bracket after retirement, higher bracket because of current lowincome situation not likely to continue), the best we can do is assume current rates.We can also make educated guesses about the politics of taxes, which doesn't mean the guesses will work out. It is going to be very difficult politically to raise taxes on the middle class, unless there is some specific quid pro quo (e.g., higher income taxes for a national health plan that saves most people more than the higher taxes). On the other hand, I would expect to see a lot of people cashing in stocks before the 15% capital gain disappears—there's a lot of powerful interests who want to see it continued, but it does nothing for most people.
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