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Author: piranha1 Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 75616  
Subject: Re: Replacing the 4% rule Date: 5/15/2010 2:39 AM
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I finally decided that the primary value of the G-K method was in the diversification of asset classes, and the rules for increasing/decreasing the annual withdrawals.

The most exciting thing for me is the software. Every retirement calculator builds in assumptions that everyone invests or should invest the same way.

This software lets me plug in my own values from my own portfolio. All you need to do is get a percentage breakdown of large cap, small cap, value, growth, foreign, bonds, cash, etc., which is pretty easy. Then you can find ETF's or indexes which approximate your portfolio breakdown. You plug those symbols into the software and historical data is then pulled from Yahoo.

You can then run simulations with your decision rules (when and how much to decrease or increase your withdrawals in certain circumstances) and with your exact portfolio mix.

You can even change the numbers on the historical data for more accuracy. If you see that the mean return for cash is 4.9% and you feel it's going to be 1.5% over the next 30 years, you can change it. You can also run it both ways and see the difference in the outcome.

I like the fact that I can change all the rates. I know, for example, inflation won't be a big factor over the next 12 years because my mortgage is 45% of my expense. Though that seems high, it really isn't since I will pay no income or social security or state tax. Since it's a fixed rate mortgage, it is totally unaffected by inflation.

Milt
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