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Author: Larry01Gott Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 6364  
Subject: Re: Dow: then 11400, now 8579 Date: 10/10/2008 12:55 PM
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I gave Jim a rec because I agree with much of his well-thought-out post. But I do disagree that the market will rebound in 2009 -- or perhaps I should say "rebound quickly".

Out on the CNBC website there are two articles "Today is the bottom", and "No one knows when the bottom will be" (Those are not the exact titles, but you get the idea about the uncertainty)

If only America was having economic problems, I'd say we could solve it by 2009 and move on upward. But this is a global biggie, and we may be the leader downward in an increasingly spiraling situation.
(Bright little ray of sunshine I am)

The Dow may rebound and move up to 9500 (I did not say "recover"), and then slide to 7000; move upward to 8250 and then slide down to 6000. This would not surprise me at all.

I work for a profitable mid-size Canadian oil and gas company whose stock has gone from $40 to $12 in the wink of an eye, mostly due to the sinking price of oil and natural gas, which is mostly due to expected usage curtailment, which is mostly due to worries about personal liquidity, which is mostly due to bank and national liquidity, which is mostly due to BAD and STUPID decisions by many people in many places for many months (and years).

The point is, that the market is interrelated to so many things that are going south right now, that it is considerably different than in 2000 where many aspects of the economy were still in good shape.

Well, Gott to go to lunch,
so we'll chat some more later.

Larry
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