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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 24974  
Subject: Re: CRA Date: 8/9/2007 7:08 PM
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I have read that post before (and also read NPI - but was on the sideline for Dendreon).

I don't know why people kept expecting CRA to go back up. Based on what exactly? I was around a lot of people who had positions and they pretty much all felt the dips were only temporary, but no one had a good reason for it to go up other than that that's where it had been.

I recall mentioning to my family early on - take a look at CRA, it is going nuts. My sister did buy some (and she too sold too late as I recall). But I also told them - "When they are done. When the human genome is announced completed. Be prepared to sell." The press was all over CRA when they were racing to complete the genome - but they always said that the real benefits would take a decade or more to be realized. Always. Yes, they had a subscription revenue model, and this did not make the money people hoped - but it was never projected to generate the sales that would have been needed to justify the valuation. When the sequence was 'finished', the hype machine was pretty much out of gas.

Oddly I really like the business CRA is in now - genetics based diagnostics. If the company wasn't 60% cash, I'd consider investing again (I think I am still a 'shareholder of record' since I gifted some physical shares to my nephew a few years back - I believe they are still officially in my name). They should pay out a special dividend of ~40% and start operating like a real business (where resources are limited and thus business decisions require more critical oversight).

Don't have the impression that I played my CRA investment really that well. At some point after my last options vested, I had something like 18K in CRA. I didn't need the money for anything so I did nothing with it (most all my investments were in mutual funds via my 401k, I held very few single companies). I think it was only worth ~3K when I sold it eventually - pretty dumb honestly. I knew plenty about asset allocation and followed a strategy well in my 401k - but with this money I ignored it - I don't do that anymore. There were a lot of lessons to be learned from those days.

I also saw a lot of people loose money - but to be fair - it was mostly money they didn't have to begin with i.e. employees who simply failed to take advantage of the opportunity, not the lost of any long accumulated nest eggs (that I knew of). Perhaps this is why I find investing psychology to be such an important subject. I watched so many of the mistakes warned about in the following document play out in front of me.

[ http://www.tilsonfunds.com/TilsonBehavioralFinance.pdf ]

How you invest is so much more important that what you choose to invest in in my opinion.

Enough for now.

Zz

P.S. - Joseph has been after me to talk about my CRA / ABI experiences for quite some time.
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