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Author: hheiserman Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1815  
Subject: Re: SodaStream - Not a razor-and-blade Date: 4/16/2013 4:02 PM
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I hit the "submit" button by accident, which explains why the format above is a mess. Sorry!

Anyway, if SodaStream (SODA) has an authentic razor-blade revenue model (meaning, they give away the soda makers and then make a fortune on CO2 refills), then we should expect that the more soda makers ("razor") there are in homes, the higher SODA's CO2 refills (the blade).

By this measure, business looks good: soda maker sales and C02 refills during 2008-2012 grew at compound annual grow rates of 41% and 21%, respectively.

However, the trend in soda-making frequency is negative.

In 2008, SODA sold 7,700,000 refills and 877,000 soda makers, for refill/soda maker ratio of 8.78x. In plain English, for every unit in use, SODA in 2008 sold almost 9 refills.

In 2009, SODA sold 8,506,000 refills and 1,057,000 soda makers. If we assume the 2008 units are still used, there are now 1,934,000 soda makers in homes, and the refill/soda maker ratio drops to 4.4x. In 2009, folks used their carbonator about half as often as the year before, based on refills.

But wait, there's more.

In 2010, the refill/soda maker ratio was down to 2.67x.

In 2011 and 2012, activity declined even further, to 2.02 and 1.64, respectively.

These trends are also negative if we assume the soda maker has a useful life of two years.

Before I took a larger position in SODA, I want to understand why soda maker sales are up, but refills per soda maker are down. You should, too. The implication here is that a lot of home carbonators are sitting on a shelf in the basement, gathering dust and taking up space—just like our ice cream maker and bread maker.


hewitt
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