UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (318) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Prev | Next | Next Thread
Author: Rayvt Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 75335  
Subject: Re: Hi gang... wow!!! Date: 7/10/2013 6:20 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 7
I just got back from 3 weeks in the Baltic and London, and was looking forward to seeing Dave's write-up showing his IUL data. And was disappointed to find nothing.
Darn.

Anyway .... to continue beating a dead horse .... I believe that early on Dave asked about 20-year withdrawal scenarios. Obviously, the scenarios of interest would be for *bad* times, because in good times the money never runs out.

Here are some figures for a one-time $100,000 deposit, then 20 years of withdrawing $417/mo. That's an SWR of 5%/yr, with no adjustment for inflation -- which is larger than the 4% that is typically bandied about. Items that are of interest are: final value, whether or not the account gets depleted, how many months the IUL account is bigger/smaller than the S&P500 B&H account, and the lowest account value.

Scenario 1: Jan 1981 to Jan 2001, encapsulating the 1981-82 bear market.
Accnt	Final Value		Lowest
B&H w/div $1,155,911 $78,686
IUL (loan) $185,161 $94,941
# IUL best 21 mo (9%)
# S&P best 219 mo (91%)

Scenario 2: Jan 1973 to Jan 1993, encapsulating the 1973-75 bear market.
Accnt	Final Value		Lowest
B&H w/div $325,832 $51,288
IUL (loan) $77,636 $66,904
# IUL best 96 mo (40%)
# S&P best 144 mo (60%)

Scenario 3: Jan 1993 to Jan 2013, the most-recent 20 years.
Accnt	Final Value		Lowest
B&H w/div $287,266 $98,801
IUL (loan) $107,556 $95,471
# IUL best 4 mo (2%)
# S&P best 236 mo (98%)


Scenario 2a: Jan 1973 to Jan 2003, 30 years of withdrawals.
Accnt	Final Value		Lowest
B&H w/div $729,110 $51,288
IUL (loan) $58,526 $58,526
# IUL best 96 mo (27%)
# S&P best 264 mo (73%)


Scenario 4: Jan 1975 to Jan 1995, 20 years not beginning with a bear.
Accnt	Final Value		Lowest
B&H w/div $1,022,318 $100,000
IUL (loan) $102,029 $88,069
# IUL best 0 mo (0%)
# S&P best 240 mo (100%)
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (318) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Prev | Next | Next Thread

Announcements

The Retire Early Home Page
Discussion on accelerating retirement day.
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and "#1 Media Company to Work For" (BusinessInsider 2011)! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.
Advertisement