I make a habit of throwing the NOAA numbers into a spreadsheet every month to calculate a variety of averages, as well as velocity, acceleration and jerk. I see acceleration and jerk looking very much like sine waves, I see velocity as positive but relatively flat, and I see position looking a lot like a step function.With the derivatives holding steady over time, I see no reason to expect temperature increase to vary from its (recent) historical norm.In 2003 Klyashtorin and Lyubushin modeled global temps from 1861 to 2000. They found their best fit was a linear trend of 0.04°C/decade with a 64 year cycle superimposed. The cycle had an amplitude (peak-to-trough) of 0.26°C. The residuals showed no evidence of nonlinearity or recent acceleration of warming. The 10 years since certainly haven't added any acceleration.http://icecap.us/images/uploads/05-loehleNEW.pdfDB2
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