Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (30) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next
Author: DrBob2 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 60519  
Subject: Re: It's just weather ... Date: 2/1/2013 4:46 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 3
I make a habit of throwing the NOAA numbers into a spreadsheet every month to calculate a variety of averages, as well as velocity, acceleration and jerk. I see acceleration and jerk looking very much like sine waves, I see velocity as positive but relatively flat, and I see position looking a lot like a step function.
With the derivatives holding steady over time, I see no reason to expect temperature increase to vary from its (recent) historical norm.

In 2003 Klyashtorin and Lyubushin modeled global temps from 1861 to 2000. They found their best fit was a linear trend of 0.04°C/decade with a 64 year cycle superimposed. The cycle had an amplitude (peak-to-trough) of 0.26°C. The residuals showed no evidence of nonlinearity or recent acceleration of warming. The 10 years since certainly haven't added any acceleration.

Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (30) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next


Foolanthropy 2014!
By working with young, first-time moms, Nurse-Family Partnership is able to truly change lives – for generations to come.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Post of the Day:
Berkshire Hathaway

Buffett's Biggest Mistake
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.