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Author: 0gre Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 131  
Subject: I think we've found the bottom Date: 11/17/2006 12:15 PM
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Well in light of todays announcement "Housing Construction Plummets in October" http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061117/economy.html?.v=10 I figured ASVI would be trounced. Instead I look and it's flat as a board. So my thesis is that this is the bottom. I don't think now is a great time to buy stock because I feel (total wild arsed guess) that ASVI is going to sort of bounce around this support level until the housing market perks up or they have a blowout quarter.

Maybe sell some puts for income? I got burned with options last time on ASVI so I'm not sure about that.

-- Dennis
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Author: graybell Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 120 of 131
Subject: Re: I think we've found the bottom Date: 11/17/2006 2:21 PM
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I agree with your analysis. All the bad news in the housing market has already been factored into the price. Housing stocks, in general, have been battered down so much that they are currently bargains. Judging from today's news, however, it might be a while before we see any substantial recovery.

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Author: graybell Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 121 of 131
Subject: Re: I think we've found the bottom Date: 11/17/2006 4:09 PM
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This doesn't make any sense at all. ASVI is up almost 3% on bad news in the housing market. Those "random walk" guys are right!

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Author: 0gre Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 122 of 131
Subject: Re: I think we've found the bottom Date: 11/17/2006 4:48 PM
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This doesn't make any sense at all. ASVI is up almost 3% on bad news in the housing market. Those "random walk" guys are right!

Yeah I though it was quite odd also. Even stranger considering the fact that nearly everything else was down. This is what convinces me more than anything that it is indeed at or very close to the bottom. Maybe this means its going to start swinging the other way.

One possible answer to this is that they it's entirely possible that the company might buying back shares. Makes a lot of sense to buy when the stock price is at it's low.

"In October 2006, our Board of Directors approved the implementation of a new stock buyback plan. Under this plan, we may repurchase up to $50 million of our common stock over a three year period. We anticipate share purchases will be made from time to time, depending on market conditions."

-- Dennis

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Author: Metal27 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 123 of 131
Subject: Re: I think we've found the bottom Date: 11/22/2006 2:33 AM
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M* reported on 11/7 that ASVI's earnings estimates for 2006 had dropped from $1.08 before, to $.83 now; 2007 estimates dropped from $1.26 before to $.90 now.

Perhaps ASV has learned how to thrive on bad news!

Scott




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