I wasn't arguing with you, rationalwalk, but Greenblatt. Having read that article I think you nailed his thesis that the market should go higher. As perhaps the interviewer pointed out there are some VERY astute value investors who are very divergent about where the economy is headed.

I think Mungofitch points out that the goal is NOT to anticipate a turn, but to turn not long after a top, and always watch the "tea leaves."

While intellectually I agree, and have participated somewhat in this rise, it is just SO clear to me that this will turn "soon", and I have bet that way.

Of course the real trick is not to guess right once, but to guess right often.

Hockeypop