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Author: hockeypop Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76238  
Subject: Re: Should I sell now Date: 11/19/2008 6:03 PM
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I watched my portfolio go from 650k to 300k. I cant sleep at night as this is my next egg that I worked my life for. I am 44. I have my sell orders in for the morning. I know that they say that fear spooks most people but this really seems very bad and seems like there is more downside. I think there is more chance of the marger going to 5000 than to 10,000. Any final thoughts?

Well, I'm 63 and watched my portfolio drop 30% in the last year (and I'm 80% invested in securities). I think the DOW could go lower, but admit I don't know. I have an asset allocation I like and understand, believe in the SWR figures Intercst and RYR discusses, have an emergency fund, pretty well live below my means, and don't have to touch my stocks for five years if I don't want to. I also don't believe you will pick the bottom so even if you're right, I don't think you'll be able to get back in.

I lived through something similar in 1973-74 and freely admit that it was easier watching my portfolio go from $10,000 to $6,600 that a $1 million portfolio lose $340,000. But I'll also say that I made your mistake (IMO) in 2001, and am more knowledgeable now.

If you've been at TMF very long than you should understand the risk in a portfolio that's dropped by 55% and that over 20 years it should come back. You've been making "risk" bets, and they've been temporarily called. You'll have to decide how long-term that is.

I'll plug RYR and admit that in the last four years I've been a better long-term investor than I was for the previous 40, but there is plenty of good free advice here at TMF too. Everyone SAYS they have the stomach for the drop but they often don't. I'll be the one buying your shares at these rates. H*ll, I'm even closing on a new house next week (could be the only one in NJ), so I am a contrarian.

We'll see in a year how our portfolio's have fared. I wish you luck!

Hockeypop
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