UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (22) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next
Author: woodymw Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1960751  
Subject: Re: Electoral College Math Date: 10/11/2012 9:06 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 20
I would venture at this point, 183 votes are pointed to Obama. I believe that Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, certainly Iowa, and New Mexico, New Hampshire and Vermont are all definitely in play for Romney - and very iffy for the current occupant.

Before the cycle started I would have agreed with you on Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, and New Hampshire ... and I included Iowa in my original list of "still in play" states. However, we're not at the beginning of the cycle, we're near the end - and the numbers have consistently said that those states are increasingly safe for Obama, with the possible exception of Iowa. I'll bet if we watch where the ad spending goes over this last 6 weeks we'll see most of those states out of the money loop.

You know, come to think of it, I wouldn't necessarily discount Massachusetts and perhaps even Connecticut. They have lost tremendous amounts of industry and jobs under Obama. Those folk are not stupid.

Putting Massachusetts and Vermont on a list of "in play" states for Romney is, at this point, an exercise in saying "how deeply can I damage my credibility in this discussion". Since the 1920s, Massachusetts has voted for Republicans four times - Eisenhower twice and Reagan twice. And there are a lot of things Gov. Romney is, but he is no Eisenhower, and he is no Reagan. Hell - they even voted for George McGovern. And Obama's largest margin of victory in 2008 outside of Hawaii was Vermont - nearly 70 / 30. If they don't vote for Obama 60 / 40 or better I'll be shocked.

Also ... note that since Obama took office in 2009, jobs have:

Increased in Massachusetts
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/employment/massachusetts/

Held flat in Connecticut
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/employment/connecticut/

Increased in Vermont
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/employment/vermont/

Etc. If I believed jobs numbers in these states were going to drive a vote for Romney, I'd expect to see graphs that look like 2008 in the charts I linked to above. That has just not been the case.
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (22) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next

Announcements

Pencils of Promise - Back to School Drive
"Pencils of Promise works with communities across the globe to build schools and create programs that provide education opportunities for children."
Managing Your Wealth
Our own TMFHockeypop from Rule Your Retirement fame on the TV show Managing Your Wealth.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Post of the Day:
Value Hounds

Clorox Isn't Cleaning Up
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and "#1 Media Company to Work For" (BusinessInsider 2011)! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.
Advertisement