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If I input all the info I have into TURBOTAX which shows me that the IRS owes me a refund of $3,000 and I file an extension with a check for $6,000 (just to cover myself in case I made a date entry mistake), is my estimate not reasonable ?

$3,000 refund is a significant buffer. There is also a 10% buffer for the late payment penalty.

http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f4868.pdf

The late payment penalty is usually ½ of 1% of any tax (other than estimated tax) not paid by April 15, 2013. It is charged for each month or part of a month the tax is unpaid. The maximum penalty is 25%.
The late payment penalty will not be charged if you can show reasonable cause for not paying on time. Attach a statement to your return fully explaining the reason. Do not attach the statement to Form 4868.
You are considered to have reasonable cause for the period covered by this automatic extension if at least 90% of your actual 2012 tax liability is paid before the regular due date of your return through withholding, estimated tax payments, or payments made with Form 4868.
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