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If you are okay forecasting no recessions, no wars, no major inflation

Either you are not understanding or trying to be trigger happy selecting a part of the post without context. Read my post again. May be and hopefully it will become clear.

I will spell it out a little bit more.

If you think a DOW component (e.g IBM) is overvalued at $209, then evaluate if the fair value with a 60% drop is $83 is OK. If this makes sense to you then the market is indeed overvalued significantly. In this context assume normal GDP growth (~2-3%) . Now IBM is an example. You can take any of the 50 DOW components.
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