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Author: kelbon Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 8821  
Subject: Re: secured promidary notes Date: 4/14/2014 11:11 AM
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If you buy stocks, you ARE going to achieve low returns over the next 10 years (no more than 6%), and there will very likely be a point during this time period when stocks will be MUCH cheaper. Perhaps that will already happen later this year or in 2015. There's really no reason to be invested in the stock market between now and the next crash, ESPECIALLY at your age and in your financial position.

Let's imagine that over the next ten years that stocks will return 6%.

Now, let's imagine two people, both have money to invest now, one invests in the market index, the other chooses to wait for the market to pull back significantly; he hopes for the market to fall 50%, but knows this only happens two or three times every hundred years.

Ten years go by and with moderate fits and starts the market returned 6% annually. The first person who invested his $100k now finds himself with $179k. The second person still has his $100k in a checking account; he is still waiting for a significant correction. For the two investors to be on an even footing again; for them both to have $100k, the stock market will have to crash significantly, by 44%.

The second person, who chose to wait for the market to be MUCH cheaper is confident that there will be a big crash very soon. There is, the market goes down 25%. He now feels confident and invests his money. The second person, who invested his $100k now has $134k. 34% more than the man who waited.

kelbon
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