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Author: joelxwil Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 75526  
Subject: Re: What's wrong with my calcs? Date: 10/3/2004 2:09 PM
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If you had read the entire post, you would have seen that my strategies have evolved over the years, in particular with the advantage of computer technology, both hardware and software. Trading in 1974 was very different from now. I was very different in 1974 than I am now.

If you think that the dollar cost averaging posted gives good results, fine. I do not, and for the reasons I have given. I also think that it is naive to expect that such a strategy will be profitable in the future. It may or may not be.

If I had a net loss over a 5 year period, I would reconsider what I was doing. Actually, if I had a net loss over a 1 year period I would look very carefully at what I was doing, and try to find out what I had done wrong.

So far as the long term aspects of dollar cost averaging, I should just point out that you have more money in the long term if you avoid losing some in the short term.

I remember overhearing a couple of brokers at lunch in 1987 after the October crash. "Oh Well," they said, "we are in it for the long term." Whenever I hear somebody say that, the chances are very good that he has just lost money. In this case, somebody else's money, of course.
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