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Author: Dwdonhoff Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76406  
Subject: Re: Hi gang... wow!!! Date: 9/18/2013 12:02 AM
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IGU,
That makes no difference to me. All I want to know is what your specific IUL model is. You must have one or you can't come up with any real numbers, right? You must have some model you believe in or you wouldn't be selling these things to your customers, right? Let's use that one.
Go whole thread, the Allianz IUL model is fully described several times.

Specific performance is backed up by nobody. I have to verify it for myself.
Knock yourself out, everything you need is upthread.

Specifically, what needs to be fixed in Ray's spreadsheet calculations to fix these things?
Specifically, I've detailed how to factor for the volatility risks, explained how dividends are included, and provided the specific IUL performance numbers.

Learn to read.

Yet you continue to ignore the risk of the insurance company going out of business, or arbitrarily changing the caps to something much lower.
Hardly. I've addressed them multiples of times.

Learn to read.

Where's your 100% reserve in case your IUL blows up? And since you've decided to ignore these risks, anything of lower likelihood should be ignored too. You can't cry risk and danger selectively.
An IUL is a risk baseline. Any naked securities buy & hold position will be decimated prior to an IUL eroding simply due to the nature of the structure and components.

If my investment quadruples and then halves, leaving me with double my original investment, has it suffered a 50% drawdown? I think the answer is yes as you would argue it. Yet why should I care?
Because a naked longterm position lasts longer than 2 years. Cherry picking a 2 year sequence is silly.

I think your entire drawdown risk theory is useless
OK... think yourself crazy for all I care. Swing for the moon. Nobody's taking away your freedom to gamble to your last penny.

Your argument is that risk of loss is mandatory and doesn't matter to the bottom line. Your argument fails mathematically (or, more explicitly, nobody has yet show how it outperforms a market loss risk free IUL.)

Maybe there's a different buy & hold market with a smoother path than the S&P... less volatility and equal or better long term gains. THAT might do it. But nobody's brought that out yet.

Dave Donhoff
Leverage Planner
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