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Author: AnandaVaR Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 297  
Subject: Re: 2004 Date: 7/7/2004 1:03 PM
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I'll address your following concern:

>>
4. china bust. every boom is followed by a bust. the asian rim countries boomed in the 90's then busted in 97. the US as an emerging market economy was boom/bust. even japan had its boom/bust. china is no different. when china goes bust, the ripples will be big. the timing is of course very uncertain. but this one is an inevitable.
>>

Ain't gonna happen anytime soon.

There may be some risk involved with the 'busting' of China's economy, but only after there is a considerable ramp up and saturation, as had been seen with most of the other Boom/Busts you've mentioned.

Each of the various cycles you mention had specific causes that drove the economic conditions to tepidness - at which time triage and circuit breaker style mechanisms kicked in, providing for a softer landing.

China, although growing rapidly, has not even come close to the extensive heights that the Asian Tigers had risen to. In addition, most of the issues in both the Asian rim countries and Japan were both in the financial services sectors. The driving force was extensive leverage, isolationist and protection economic policy, and a 'we are invincible' attitude that hit these economies. Nonetheless, these economies are recovering steadily and will be mainstream again in the next decade - at least to the level of the EU.

If you've ever had a chance to read the Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire, you might understand that China is still very much in it's infancy with respect to it's market power and growth potential. It will be a significant influence in the future markets of the world - if not only for it's enormous population. Several factors to consider include the difference in China's ability to separate economic influences from political ones (at least in the public mind), population, outsourcing growth, credibility, physical resources, regional political influence, external diplomatic relationships, GDP (1.2 Trillion USD in 2002), and it's rapid technology advances.

The risks associated with this emerging powerhouse has also been curtailed by many of the causes of earlier busts being dealt with promptly to prevent further economic damage.

Take a look at the following article on Fool:
http://www.fool.com/news/foth/2001/foth010907.htm

Great article on Japan's situation and where they went as well as the US situation. None of these things apply to China's case.

There may be some hidden crash-inducer for the Chinese market, but with all due respect, let China first be seen as a champion before taking punches. There's still considerable room to grow, and many years before we see any effects of a Chinese crash. Now where did I leave that translation dictionary...

Ananda
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