Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
No. of Recommendations: 0
I'll modify:

PLEASE, no one reply to this message until JABoa has had a chance to read it and reply. Thanks!


Thank you for taking the time to drop by. We'd appreciate it if you'd consider the following proposition and tell us what you think of it:

You have a single die which you know is fair. You may roll the die as many times as you like -- these rolls don't count. When you are ready, you make one and only one roll of the die (this one counts). If the die comes up 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5, you win $100 (one hundred dollars). If the die comes up 6, you lose $1000 (one thousand dollars).

Rick would take the numbers 1-5 and make the bet with Jim, who would serve as the "house." Rick will take the bet only once, since he has a 5 in 6 chance of winning. Sure, if he hits the 6, he loses big, but he feels the one time "odds" are overwhelmingly in his favor. Rick would not consider taking the bet 100 times, which is enough time to let the normal distribution fill in and let statistics take over.

Is this a "good bet" for Rick? Why or why not?

Thanks in advance,
Rick and Jim
Print the post  


When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.