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Author: Trick Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1443  
Subject: Re: Rick and Jim's Proposition Date: 9/15/2000 11:10 AM
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I'll modify:

PLEASE, no one reply to this message until JABoa has had a chance to read it and reply. Thanks!

JABoa,

Thank you for taking the time to drop by. We'd appreciate it if you'd consider the following proposition and tell us what you think of it:

You have a single die which you know is fair. You may roll the die as many times as you like -- these rolls don't count. When you are ready, you make one and only one roll of the die (this one counts). If the die comes up 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5, you win $100 (one hundred dollars). If the die comes up 6, you lose $1000 (one thousand dollars).

Rick would take the numbers 1-5 and make the bet with Jim, who would serve as the "house." Rick will take the bet only once, since he has a 5 in 6 chance of winning. Sure, if he hits the 6, he loses big, but he feels the one time "odds" are overwhelmingly in his favor. Rick would not consider taking the bet 100 times, which is enough time to let the normal distribution fill in and let statistics take over.

Is this a "good bet" for Rick? Why or why not?

Thanks in advance,
Rick and Jim
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