I'm a bit puzzled by your message. If I read you right, then I think you are not looking at insurance properly.First, in life insurance, it's not you betting against the insurance company about you being so unlucky as to die. Rather, you are insuring against the chance that you will die too soon.I think it is incorrect to view insurance as an "odds" game. Insurance is not to "beat the odds", but is to "protect from a catastrophic occurance". The odds for/against the occurance merely determine the premium. For example, the odds against your house burning down is quite small (perhaps 1 in 3000). But if it does happen, it would be a catastrophic loss, so you insure against it. The premium is very low, since the odds are small.I would submit that the process you should go through is:1) Is the loss likely? (1 chance in 3000 is. 1 chance in 100,000,000 probably isn't.)2) If the loss occurred, would it wipe you (or your family) out financially? (Death of a 30-year old father of 3 children would be. Death of a 65-year old retiree probably wouldn't be.)3) Then, select the policy which has the best cost/benefit ratio.Your example of healthcare operation is EXACTLY why MSA's appear to be a good way to go. Small amounts are paid out-of-pocket (using the dollars which would otherwise go to pay for the low-deductible insurance and the deductible). Large amounts are picked up by the policy. Note that the way these operate is that catastrophic losses are covered, but others are not.Regards,Ray
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