Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (35) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Prev | Next | Next Thread
Author: aj485 Big gold star, 5000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 25316  
Subject: Re: Roth 401K-brokers that allow individual stoc Date: 8/20/2013 11:25 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 1
I'm gambling....because I only have stock in 2 companies?

Yes - they each make up significantly more than 4% - 5% of your total investment portfolio, they are both high flying aggressive growth tech companies (yes, Tesla is a tech company that tries to masquerade as a car company), and tech companies tend to fall hard.

Tesla stock might not quadruple but I believe it will double, eventually.

Or it might crash and burn to zero. Tesla has not shown sustained profitabilty. It has had a single profitable quarter after operating for 10 years. And you apparently bought during or after the rally that accompanied the profitable quarter announcement. You bought high, hoping to go higher. That'a a gamble.

At least half of the Teslas sold aren't sold in the US. Even if the US economy crashes it won't kill Tesla.

Well, based on the Tesla First Quarter 2013 Shareholder letter dated 5/8/13, Tesla said they hadn't delivered any customer cars outside of North America, so that doesn't seem to be consistent with your statement. Be that as it may, Tesla needs to have a sustainable way for their cars to go on long range (500 mile+ roundtrip) trips in it's entire market. If they want to be a world-wide car company, they need to provide that capability world-wide. How much will that cost, and how will they afford it, while still turning profits? If they can't find a way to provide that capability, they are destined to be a niche commuter car company, competing with the likes of the Volt and the Leaf, whose parent companies can afford to sell them as a loss leader, if necessary. Tesla, being a one-trick pony, won't have that option.

Mr. Musk is a great leader and innovater.

Elon Musk also is spending time and money on SpaceX and Solar City. The money he made from PayPal will only go so far, and by trying to be in charge of 3 aggressive growth companies in completely different industries, can he really give all 3 companies the leadership they need?

You didn't say much about Amazon, but you apparently also bought it near it's all time high at the time, hoping it would continue to go higher. It did for a while, but has recently dropped back down, probably to near where you bought it at - which is why your overall portfolio was only up 12% - 13%, while Tesla was up 20% - 30%.

You know - it might work. There are people who hit it big when gambling. But based on the portfolio you have, the amount you have invested and the goals for your portfolio, you appear to be gambling by going for the Hail Mary, rather than grinding it out.

AJ
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (35) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Prev | Next | Next Thread

Announcements

Foolanthropy 2014!
By working with young, first-time moms, Nurse-Family Partnership is able to truly change lives – for generations to come.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Post of the Day:
Macro Economics

Economic Implications of Cuba
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and "#1 Media Company to Work For" (BusinessInsider 2011)! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.
Advertisement