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Author: AOLFoolman100 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 741390  
Subject: Re: Intrade Prez odds... Date: 10/4/2012 4:08 PM
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In comparison, the Obama campaign reportedly had $130 million cash on hand at the end of August, while the Romney campaign had $191 million. http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance

Conclusion 1: it would be trivially easy and cheap for either campaign to manipulate these markets.

Conclusion 2: in context, they don't mean much.



I agree. I've been struggling to find out whether Intrade is "predictive" and whether it can be manipulated. However, I've read (and been told by posters here) that Intrade is very accurate. Granted, if it's manipulated, then that goes out the window.

However, what is noteworthy and real is that the odds did decrease, indicating a drop in confidence in Obama's chances after the debate. I couldn't imagine that manipulation was withdrawn or greatly attentuated the day after the 1st debate.
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