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In my opinion (as humble, unspoken, and Foolish as it may be), Microsoft is an incredibly balanced risk/reward stock. Bill always seems to reduce the former and increase the latter...thus the "In Bill We Trust" insignia on his approximate $100 billion.

But if you are looking for a short term play, may I suggest a more "volitile" stock. The more "volitile" or "volumenous" a stock is, the higher the risk associated with the stock and herego, the more reward/performance demanded by investors. Microsoft pps moves, that is for sure. However, recently it is not moving the huge % such as AMZN or YHOO or a few others in the tech industry. Microsoft pps seems to move in increments, and doesn't necessarily look back. Thus, you could be on the wrong side of a sell move that might cost you a potential 10% in opportunity cost.

That said, I would reccomend simply buying and holding. What leads you to believe that the market will dip in Oct/Nov? Is it because that is what happened last year? I would be very suspicious of that type of reasoning, the market could just as easily heat up and leave you standing on the sidelines instead of out in the field.

For however bad Microsoft operating systems are, the company simply will not stop producing an excellent return for years to come. They have the leadership, the management, the ability to attract the top talent, the current top talent, the breadth of their financial ability is mind-boggling (perhaps the greatest of any company EVER), and a superior executable marketing plan.

I reccomend to buy and hold. The "probability" of Bill Gates doing wonderful things with your investment over the next year, 3 years, 5 years, and beyond is extremely high....
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