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Instead of thinking $16-17 by the end of the year I prefer to value the company as a whole as if I were to buy it today. I would estimate cash flow from operating earnings to be in the vicinity of $30 million for the 12 months ending December 2007. Of course this isn't owner earnings as it doesn't subtract capital expenditures for continued operation (not additional growth). Importantly there are significant assets that money has been spend on that are not yet contributing earnings to the business. In addition, considerable money has been spend on planning stages for new resorts. If the company were to quit new construction in Dec 2007 and concentrate only on products under development I think they could throw off somewhere between $60-$80 million in owner earnings. I would conservatively value a stable asset rich business like this between $840-1280M A value 2-3 times higher than what it currently trades at in the open market. Look for hints in the earnings report due next week.
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