Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (15) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next
Author: MrArbitrage Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 54611  
Subject: Intel Valuation Date: 2/20/2002 3:19 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 3
Being short is certainly frustrating. It is frustrating to have to wait for stupidity to expose itself to those from whom it emanates. As with AOL, it took about 7 months for it to reach my price range of the low $20's. All the while I had to listen to ridicule like Noah building the Ark. I had to watch sheep repeat history while building there castles in the air. It is frustrating when you know that something is going to happen, but can't exactly pinpoint the when. The duration of credulity is difficult to quantify. I think no man knows the hour or the day, but the season is most certainly upon us.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not inherently a bear. I can honestly say that I for several years, going back to the winter of 1993, had been long Intel stock. I have no partiallity toward either side of the market. I only turned bearish on Intel since around June of 2001 based upon market cap, earnings and fundamentals. Many will find it hard to believe, but I will once again be bullish - when prices justify being so.

Despite the frustration, I know that Intel will soon be a $150-$175 Billion dollar company. I know that Yahoo will soon be a $2.00 stock. I know that Amazon will be a $1.00 stock. I know that the DJII will find equilibrium at the 7,500-8,000 range. It is worthwhile to keep buying the "out of the money" puts despite the fact that they may very well expire worthless. The reason is that if I keep buying the same strike prices after they expire, stupidity will be exposed - sooner rather than later and I will reap substantial profits that far outweigh the losses from the previous options that expired. It has worked for me before and it will work for me again. When prices reflect value, than I will go long.

People scoff at far more experienced and sagacious investors such as Warren Buffet who predicted a decade of 7-8% average return on the stock market. Why do they scoff? Because the suckers market rallied by the mid double digits after the prediction. Guess what. He is still right. He will have the last laugh because we are only in the first year of that prediction. There are about 9.75 more to follow and there is no WAY that the expectations priced into the current market are going to be realized. Those who are living by the sword are going to die by that sword because they are not going to be content to take their short term profits and run. If they do run, that will perhaps cause the correction. If they don't run, it will implode upon them. It's a paradox.
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (15) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next

Announcements

Pencils of Promise - Back to School Drive
"Pencils of Promise works with communities across the globe to build schools and create programs that provide education opportunities for children."
Managing Your Wealth
Our own TMFHockeypop from Rule Your Retirement fame on the TV show Managing Your Wealth.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Post of the Day:
Value Hounds

Clorox Isn't Cleaning Up
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and "#1 Media Company to Work For" (BusinessInsider 2011)! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.
Advertisement