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Interesting post.

You are right! As Jakob Nielson says, and I agree, 99% of the sites that use flash shouldn't being using it. However,

1. Flash is the standard when it comes to creating multi-media demostrations. We often don't see those on the web. It is also used heavily in demostrations via kiosks and CDs.

2. I believe the use of flash will start showing up more effectively. For example, if you go to a site like, they use flash in small instances. To create an effect like a moving bar, an interactive logo, or a interactive voting mechanism. These types of small uses of flash, in lieu, of an entire full page flash demo I think will become more common place.

3. As bandwidth increases, I do believe Flash will be more widely used, whether is should or should not be used.

As for HTML and Code authoring programs. I believe their will always be a market for them. The one thing I see is companies that make these application servers like Microsoft, ATG, Allaire, will ultimately being making authoringtools that make programming in the language simplier. Acutally this is already happening. That's why I think it might be a great thing for Cold Fusion to have Macromedia behind it. The two will build each other up and make their products stronger. It's the next logical step that Macromedia needs to take in order to stay ahead of the game. They simply can't sit idly by and be a company that makes tools that help you build your site in another language. I think they need to have a platfor you can also develop on, which Cold Fusion provides. As for the more opensource languages like Java, UltraDev does provide the necessary tools to work with that as well. I think Macr is going in the right direction. The stock price is just reacting like every other stock in the tech market. Ultimately the strong will survie. I think Macr is strong.

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