I'm predisposed to the Hussman/Grantham view of the current market (I've heard Grantham is 50% in cash) so I try to force myself to think about the opposing case.http://library.constantcontact.com/download/get/file/1104076...Of particular interest from the decade of the 50s, 1954 and 2013 have very similar price behavior, as they both put together seven consecutive positive S&P months between November and May and had almost identical 19-20% moves between Thanksgiving and Memorial Day. Digging deeper into the actual monthly numbers, you will see that even the monthly performance pattern played out in very similar fashion.Those who choose not to gravitate toward the similarities in the 1954/2013 tape action, may choose to rely on the fact the S&P was incredibly cheap in May of 1954, selling at a 10.43 Price to Earnings Ratio, which is very low, especially in low interest rate environments and arguably a bit more attractive than today’s 19.02 PE. Given comparable interest rate levels, earnings trends and tape action, I can forgive such and find the 1950 comparison more applicable than those from high interest rate periods. Speaking again of interest rates, there will continue to be much made of the impending higher rate environment and its impact on equities, just as there has been over the last four years, but if I am long equities at this juncture, I would continue to prefer a very slow methodical rise in interest rates, at least up until they reach historic norms.Jeff Saut and Richard Bernstein, neither of whom are permabull types think this bull market is secular and is only in the middle innings:http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm Rich began by stating he is extremely bullish, believing we are in one of the biggest “bull markets” ever. He commented that individual investors have “selective memories” and they think things should “feel good” when the stock market is going up. That is clearly not the case now. Things don’t feel very good, which is why investors don’t understand why the equity markets are so buoyant. Rich therefore opines we are likely only in the 4th or 5th inning of this bull market and when things start to feel good, and investors return in droves, the market will be in its 8th or 9th inning. Of course. that is the historic psychological cycle of the market, as can be seen in the chart on page 3.The call for this week: The negative nabobs that continue to call this rally just a “tactical rally” in an ongoing “secular bear” market, as they have for more than four years, should consider this. The equally weighted S&P 500 (SPXEW/2590.60) made a new all-time high in April 2011; and made another new all-time high in March of last year, and has been pointing the way higher ever since (see chart on page 3). I, like Rich Bernstein, think this “bull” has a lot further to run. I do, however, think the equity market will become vulnerable to a decent pullback in the July/August timeframe.Louise Yamada recently had some market commentary...I watched it about a week ago, and don't have my notes, but she said that the large-cap consumer staple stocks (many of these would qualify as Lynch stalwarts) have lifted out of multi-year bases and are in secular uptrendshttp://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000167171
the easy way to invest in mostly large cap consumer staples VDChttp://money.usnews.com/funds/etfs/consumer-goods-funds/vang...
My miseducated guess is that we are in 1946. The war is over, the boys are coming home. The market is up up and away only to fall apart sooner rather than later. And when it falls apart it will take a few years to get back where it is now. Things look rosy, so dont mind me. Dave
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