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Author: mungofitch Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools 10+ Year Anniversary! Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 212394  
Subject: Re: 40% Overvalued Date: 10/8/2012 9:38 AM
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Is that why it usually goes up over the long term horizon?

As with any equity, the longer the time horizon the more your returns will
approximate the change in underlying value of the security and the smaller
the effects of temporary over/undervaluation on the dates of purchase and sale.
The valuation on dates of purchase and sale are extremely important,
but the importance does eventually start to fade.

An example.
I probably overpaid for my original shares, but only by a small amount.
I built my stake in September 2001 at an average cost basis of $64,267.
For a sense of scale that was 1.67 times the most recently reported quarterly book of $38,458.
As long as I sell those shares at a valuation at least that high my long
run return will be at least equal to the change in intrinsic value.
That would be $179,430 today based on price/book. Book/share grew
9.78%/year compounded in those 11 years, versus 2.82%/year total return for SPY.

Unfortunately for me BRK's share price has risen only 6.42%/year since
I bought my shares, an exact doubling in almost exactly 11 years.
That can be thought of as 9.8%/year in value creation and -3.4%/year in multiple compression.
Since I think we can assume the multiple compression is now over, for me
it's a one time drop of -24.5%. So the rate of return from here should
track the value creation and the one time drag from compression will
be a smaller and smaller amount on a per-year-of-share-holding basis.
Again assuming multiples never change from here, at the 20 year mark
the -24.5% drag will have been only -1.4%/year instead of the current -3.4%/year.

Jim
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