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Author: albaby1 Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 72483  
Subject: Re: OT: Fun with odds Date: 11/13/2012 4:49 PM
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It does not, Fry got it in one.

I choose the colors in the box, but YOU choose the color.

If I make it 80-20 red, you can choose red. If I know you like red, I can make it 75-25 black, but you can know that I know and choose black.

You can blindly choose a color by the second hand of your watch.


I have the option of turning it into a pure game of chance - but I don't have to. As you point out, I have the option of trying to outsmart you - because your selection of the composition of balls in the urn was deliberate, not random. By construction, the game is different than the Ellsburg paradox, since that facet of the game is non-random. If there is any information about you that would allow me to deduce (even imperfectly) whether you have chosen to put more red or black balls in the container, then that affects the odds.

It might not be large enough to affect the EV of the game by more than a penny, so it might be moot. But the two circumstances are not identical.

Albaby
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