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it may settle in at the $250M domestic mark (and maybe as much as $500M worldwide)...

It will be interesting to see what happens when Harry Potter enters the ring. Harry will certainly appeal to the same young people but I think Transformers will see adults returning their children to see it a second and third time. If so, the $300 million level is certainly possible (where Pirates, SP-3, and Shrek all approached).

Normally, I'd say your estimates are way too weak but Harry clouds the picture. Still, I think the worldwide is way off. If this movies doesn't do $750+ million worldwide I will be surprised.

One reason to be optimistic about the foreign market is that the movie has not opened in over half of the markets. The UK, China, Japan, and Germany (to name a few) should all embrace this movie. I would expect it to do well in the Middle East too.

I got this from Wilipedia:

The opening domestic gross was 50% more than what Paramount Pictures expected, with one executive attributing it to word of mouth telling "the parents that it's OK to take the kids." A Cinemascope poll indicated the film was most popular with children and parents, including older women, and attracted many African American and Latino viewers.

Also, this may be old news but it is good news for the future:

On May 30, 2007, Dreamworks greenlit two sequels to Transformers, and Shia LaBeouf, Megan Fox and Peter Cullen signed on to return.

The boom in movie ticket sales should be good news for toy sales. I have not found a DVD release date but it will probably come at Thanksgiving -- giving a boost to both DVD and toy sales.

Hasbro investors should be pleased with how this is developing.

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