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Author: pauleckler Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76384  
Subject: Re: VFINX: compound ret 11.53% Date: 8/31/2014 3:11 PM
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It seems reasonable for planning to ask the question: Where is the S&P Return trend line headed?

Wide variations make trends hard to spot, but moving averages can be used to smoothe the data. Both the 7 yr and 10 yr moving average take major hits from the -37% return of 2008. Both are steady in the range 14 to 22% until 2001. Both have taken major hits since, but are recovering from the 2008 bottom. 2013 values are 8.5 and 9.1%, and rising.

And by the way, if you think the S&P will return 25% this year, 1.9% of that is dividends. So S&P 500 is expected to close at 2265, up 23.12% from 1840 on Jan 1. The gain expected from the current 2003 is 13% for the rest of the year.
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