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Author: tamhas Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 77894  
Subject: Re: NC, VA, FL Called for Romney. Date: 10/11/2012 11:31 AM
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It turned into a nearly unprecedented landslide

The key here is "turned into". When you were confidently predicting landslide well in advance of the election, that position was not supported by the polls. It was an emotional position on your part. As the election approached, those polls changed and swung toward the position you wanted. So, it worked out for you, but not because you were right in the early call.

The same is true now. When you predict a result based on what you want, you risk disappointment because the electorate isn't following your feelings; they are following their own. When you cherry pick individual polls you are telling us more about your preferences than about the preferences of the electorate.

There is science to polling and statistics, but it is probabilistic. That is why all polls have a margin of error and why better or worse polling methodologies will produce different results. Did you see where Gallup is moving to 50% cellphones? Doesn't that make it likely they will come up with different numbers than Rasmussen with 0%?

Right now there is an interesting gap between the picture painted by state polls and that painted by national polls. There has been something of a gap for much of this election cycle since we have had enough state polls to notice. It is a 2-3 point difference with the state polls being more positive for Obama. Yes, the national polls are sometimes from bigger and more established firms, but not always. Yes, the national polls have larger sample sizes per polls, but there are a lot more state polls so the total sampled population is similar in size. How are you going to explain that based just on emotion?

And, actually, no, the science in climate change is not hijacked. There is a lot of fake science in the opposition, but the real science is the real science ... you just don't want to admit it ... another emotional decision not based on fact.
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