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It's worth remembering that, over time, the direction of the market is up, not down, even though there is turbulence along the way.


Predicting a big decline in the market is hard to do, though, sooner or later, it will happen. A stopped clock is right every twelve hours. History shows you can wait a decade, or more, for a meaningful and severe downdraft.

I agree with this as well. But since my strategy is based on what has happened within my portfolio (which may or may not mirror the broader market)in reality it has nothing to do with "predicting" and everything to do with positioning myself for what can happen or to borrow a phrase from Don Rumsfeld the "known unknowns". Meanwhile, "meaningful" is a matter of perspective where often times even a 5% correction in indices can create much more "meaningful" opportunities with individual equities.

Also around 30% cash.

As I said I never viewed you as being conventional, :<)

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