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I've been holding Mondavi since the spring of 96 and have wateched it grow from $30 to $56 and watched it fall back down agin now to less than where it was two years ago. I know that we suffered a loss with the Woodbridge shortage this spring and with Woodbridge as our cash cow this is hurting us. It is going to take significant resources to regain our lost market share.

Also on the down side it looks like this is going to be a poor year in terms of the crops.

On the plus side we are well positioned across the many price points and we have quality brand recognition. If a slow down in wine consumption or a poor crop were to have damaging effects it should be felt less severely here than at other wineries.

On the whole I think it would be safe to buy as long as you can tolerate some more downside. I'd find it hard to believe we could drop much below $20. Be prepared to hold the stock however. I suspect it will be several years before we see $56 again.
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