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Author: fleg9bo Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 736140  
Subject: Re: Retirement Dreams Date: 7/14/2002 1:14 PM
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I've never understood why people think it's possible to evaluate a stock as "over" or "under priced", but not possible to look at the entire basket and draw a similar conclusion.

I've wondered the same thing myself. We're about 85% cash right now. Almost all of our portfolio has come from DW's stock options sold in the years 1999-2000. We bought some individual stocks in 98 and 99. In January 2000 I got real nervous about tech valuations and sold all our tech holdings. The next month or so they all doubled or tripled and I wasn't happy about that, but today some are worthless and the rest are down 75% or more.

According to the hard-core LTBHers I should have plunked 75% of that option cash right into the market. I'm very glad I didn't. I wasn't calling a top, just regarding the market as overvalued. I'm getting ready to plunk a bunch of it back in this coming week. I'm not calling it a bottom, but now believe that the risk of being out of the market offsets the risk of significant further declines. I've read the predictions of that 88-year-old guru cited by GH but I'm more convinced by Ken Fisher, with his outstanding track record (www.forbes.com and go to Columnists--he was one of the main influences that had me sit out the decline), that things will be turning around.

Good luck to us all.

--fleg
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