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I've put together a model that relates the concentration (i.e., lack of diversification) to safe withdrawals rates. See link:

My analysis leads me to believe that if you need to draw 4% of assets or more, you need to be diversified. If you can live on 2% of assets per year or less, you can probably afford to take more chances. I've tended to let my winners ride, so my top two stocks make up about 65% of my portfolio, but my withdrawal rate is low enough that even if the top 2 tank, I could still live on what's left.

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