Wahoo! The pent-up market bounce today! (1/2) Hardly unexpected, one could have safelypredicted the bounce would have breadth. Kinda nice to have REED, picked up on 12/31, to beup 10% for me already. TNK and FRO also recovering from their pull-back. Will watchinitial market behavior tomorrow and possibly pull the trigger on a new idea. Among thepossibilities- PACD, AMRS, and GSVC.
Among the possibilities- PACD, AMRS, and GSVC.Hmmm, I dunno...Why not put TORM thru your thinkolator.Oh,and I hope you had a happy new year!
Why not put TORM thru your thinkolator. Because that one's a hurtin' company at this stage from multiple angles- charterers, banks, shareholders, etc. I don't know who's agreed to what at this timeOh,and I hope you had a happy new year! Sure, so far so good ... just wish I had loaded up on TNK (up nearly 20% this week) ;)
Put together my initial watchlist for 2013--AMRS ANFI GTAT GSVC IMH STRS RKUS NRGM KWK PACD MNTGSince AMRS completed a private placement @ $2.98/sh in the last two weeks, with insider participation, they could be reasonably priced idea here. Hopefully, by the middle of the month, I will have my nibble range for each of these ideas.--I'm surprised at the number of articles on SeekingAlpha regarding PGP's premium to NAV.Here's the latest one--http://seekingalpha.com/article/1093291-equity-cefs-2012-rev...I picked up PGP shares much lower in mid-Nov. Roth shares are priced higher. Figure I canride some shares to $21, plus however many monthly payouts happen in between.
- Ack! AMRS continues to power ahead- already up more than 20% in 2013. Had a chance to delvemore into the company. Seems like the company had an ethanol line of business that thecompany sold off last year. My original attraction to AMRS was the insider participation inthe latest share offering, combined with the production ramp-up. So, I've decided on my initialrange as $3 - $3.30, or about 10% more than the $2.98/sh offering. Need to see the actual revenue numbers for Biofene to adjust that starting price.- Well, at least some of my stuff e.g. TNP & PGP is behaving well in 2013. I think TNPovertook NNA as 2nd largest tanker position in the port. I wish I had more visibility intothe loan issue. If the issue gets resolved promptly, it could provide a boost.- That news item wrt FRNT & Cape vessels seems like a natural JF move- give FRNT a dry bulkflavor just like the predecessor, FRO. The vessels don't deliver right away. Is the secondVLCC newbuild cancellation a good thing for FRO? I really wish I had more clarity on theFRNT Balance Sheet notes i.e. are the deposit refunds capital that makes its way back toFRO? It doesn't have to be cash. It could be additional equity in FRNT. That too would work for me.- The latest news item from CPLP is quite interesting. Two containerships with charterback deals, from Maersk. Plus, two newer VLCCs head to CMTC (or will it eventually be Maersk?)CPLP now has a SFL feel to it- tankers, chemical, dry bulk, and now containerships.
- Decided to cut the ORI stake- reduced Roth stake to 50%, and closed out the DRIP ac stake.Had a bouncy ride with the idea, but the Roth stake finished up about 30%, including div.The DRIP ac a much smaller gain. Even with all the housing sector problems, the company has managedto maintain its high dividend, and incrementally growing it. Probably need to keep it onmy radar screen.- Management changes at GLOG. Not sure if the change is very significant- new CEO is formerChief Strategy Officer, but CFO is new.- Missed the Dry bulk company bounce. Don't feel too bad- that's still a hurtin' sector. I amsurprised that dry bulk shipping has not reported an occasional BK as has occurred in the tanker sector.
1/10- Decided on a bite of GSVC under $9 was a reasonable starting point.- Added a little more to VZ in DRIP ac.- Nice day for FRO. Would have added to position if it stayed under $3.40/sh. Anotherday perhaps.
1/15Closed out TC @ $4.20/sh. Take the gains and wait for another opportunity.1/16- Added VZ to the Roth ac.- Trimmed KCG in Trading ac.--Debating how much impact the Aframax sale by TNK means. Does this mean the vessels values forall the vessels have to be adjusted? Yes, it would impact the book value range I ended up within two separate calculations.
1/18- Ack! all the REED gains just disappeared over the last few days. I suppose I could have taken the 15% gain after about 10 days. Then again, this one is about potential, and is currently a small stake. No biggie, I can wait on this one.- Closed out NAT on the dividend cut news. Will have a couple of days next week to decideif I want to wash the stake, and start over. The new rate, 16c, extrapolated, would yieldabout 7.5%. Not bad, but I could add to my NNA stake with a higher yield here. Also, so far thisyear, Spot Suezmax rates haven't exactly been on a tear. Lowest debt/vessel among itstanker cohorts, a renewed credit facility, trading around book (my estimates), looking togrow ... yet, I'm still ambivalent.- Added a little more FRO here. DCA move, and playing the price for an earnings run-up.May happen, may not happen. While FRO has no dividend payout, they do have some upside.Two Suezmax newbuilds deliver in Q2 & Q3. Small money piles add to FRO's cash positionin Q4 2012 and Q1 2013. Not for dividend, but for extending FRO's life as a fleet manager.- Added more OHI to DRIP position. Will it be my next DRIP ac core pick? It could,behaving very nicely so far.
Continue to deploy cash tactically.- Started GSVC stake in Trading ac- Started ED in DRIP ac- Started OAK position in Mizone ac- Started WHZ position in Mizone ac1/24TNP sold the two "for sale" VLCCs- a positive. I hope this helps alleviate the uncertaintyregarding the financial covenants. Well, at least for two of them. No mention of a salesprice. Still, a positive development.AMRS finally returning back to levels worthy of a nibble.
Okay, made a decision on GNI. Slashed the Roth position by 50%. Will likely lock gains oncerts in other accounts (Mizone, Trading ac). Might be too early, but I can deal with that ifI monetize here.--DDD drop makes it interesting, but I will wait a little more.
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