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Author: MDCigan Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 20230  
Subject: Japanese Yen - Naj? Date: 5/17/2013 12:06 AM
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Naj, would be interested to hear your thoughts on the yen in terms of a really long-term perspective if you care to share

For reference

http://peterlbrandt.com/is-the-yen-overdone-not-even-close/

The embedded paper shows a chart of the yen going back to 1970. Obviously, the secular strength in the yen versus the dollar lasted a very, very long time.

Also in my mind is the duration and magnitude of the dollar decline from 2001 to 2008.

Point being, it seems to me once currency moves get going, they appear to last a long time and move a great distance.

Maybe I'm misinterpreting, but haven't they basically flat out said, we'll print as many yen as is necessary to try and get some inflation and maintain export strength. Haven't they basically said devaluing their currency is basically official policy. Could it be that easy to just listen and responding to what they are saying. Sure yen has had a big down move already, but in the context of that 40 year chart it isn't much. I think about something like gold that went from 250 to 500 over a few years and it would have been easy to say heh it doubled I missed the move and it still had another quadruple in it over the next several years. I'm just wondering if maybe we are seeing the start of a secular decline in yen that could go on many more years with a lot more downside.

I'm currently short 1 mini contract (based mostly on the chart pattern), but thinking this is something I can maybe short and hold for a long, long time and periodically pyramid to more contracts.

Also short a bunch of Aussie mini-contracts from around 1.006. Thanks to whoever posted the notes from the Sohn conference with Soros and Druckenmiller mentioning the idea. That got me motivated to look at the chart in detail, and it looked like a massive top was building.
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