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Author: jackcrow Big gold star, 5000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1670  
Subject: Re: Discount conundrum Date: 6/7/2011 12:09 PM
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Jared,

I am hoping to find a work group where people can post either outputs, inputs etc...to compare with others.

In the past we have wandered around various boards on Fool.com to recruit people for these kinds of projects. Often the Foolish Collective Board http://boards.fool.com/foolish-collective-115096.aspx?mid=29... has been used for this type of activity.

Your best bet is to round up a group of interested parties and see if you can agree on a company or three to work on and compare notes. I really don't know of a better way or a better place to do a project like this because most other sites bury some of their methodology and its transparency in method that brings clarity to outputs.

The other method that often works is to use your spreadsheet and play with various inputs in a controlled fashion until you are within the recent range of market prices. I don't believe in the "Efficient Market Hypothesis" in its strong or weak form, I do believe many smart people looking at the same data are likely to create a tight range. That may sound contradictory, it would take a small volume to fully explain the difference. The short answer is that the market is often close enough to "right" as to allow for a reasonable check on what you are doing. Where differences often exist is in the fact that the market tends to be short sighted, not looking out much further than 4 - 6 quarters depending on the fiscal year.

Our edge, if we you assume we can garner one, is that we don't have to use THE METHOD although it is a good place to start so that we can check our answers in the back of the book.

Make sense?

jack
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