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Author: ferjen Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 41634  
Subject: Re: The BMW Screen...er, Method Date: 12/16/2006 8:29 AM
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Jim,

Check Haliburton at $11 in 2002, DUK @ $13 in 2003, CAT at $17(post split)in 2000, M0 at $18 and RJR at $8.50 (Post split) in 2000.

Amen Brother...FWIW, I did not get into DUK until November of 2005 at $26.25 a stub but still am sitting on a CAGR of 27.3% including the dividend. Based on the following chart, your bottom was the lowest of the lows so your CAGR must be considerably higher. I caught that other low after the 2005 line:

http://invest.kleinnet.com/bmw1/stats20/DUK.html

I must profess though that I did not use the BMW Method to find DUK but have used it to keep DUK.

I finally bought DD last year at $38/share...it is now at $49/share and paid a nifty dividend during the last year. I recall mentioning my pick of DuPont at the 2005 BMW Conference at Charleston and I got a lot of confused looks. I do not think anyone else thought DuPont was a good idea. But, in a year it is up 29% plus that 4% dividend. DuPont shares were selling for $52@ in 2000 when it was a DOD/FF pick. Timing is everything...but they say you cannot time the market.

I wish I would have been at that conference. I still found DD but did not get into it until $43 a share. Nonetheless, I'm sitting on a 15.3% CAGR since November 2005 (that must have been a good month to buy) including my dividends. That's definitely nothing to sneeze at but I could be up much more substantially had I bought double shares in the $38-$39 range. I had several opportunities:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?Symbol=DD

But alas, it does take some confidence and I wasn't REAL confident with DD at the time. That's not to say DD will not give me juiced returns as we move forward as it seems to be breaking out of its funk lately.

http://invest.kleinnet.com/bmw1/stats30/DD.html

Looking at Mike's 30-year chart above, it looks like a return to average CAGR would put the price north of $70. I'm not real sure of how your slice and dice technique works, but visually the average CAGR line on Mike's chart fits pretty good as the low CAGR from about 1987 to 1997. So, I'm thinking that $70 share price might be attainable within the next couple of years. Heck, it could happen next year but it would take a big move to get there and DD does not strike me as a big move type of stock.

Does that $70/share target make sense?



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