Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (10) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Prev | Next | Next Thread
Author: mungofitch Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 14518  
Subject: Re: FKA: CHK Date: 1/3/2013 3:38 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 9
Jim/ others, where do you value CHK?

If it's insanely run and NG prices stay low, current prices.
If it's merely badly run the way most firms are, $25-$30ish. Central scenario,
as I expect their leverage issues to be worked off and positive cash flow soonish.
If it's reasonably well run (e.g., keeping promises to switch to exploiting the existing assets), $45.
If it's well run and natural gas prices rise to the relatively sustainable
marginal cost for new production, up to $60. They have a lot of assets.

But this kind of thing really requires much deeper analysis than I'm capable of.
I'm relying on analysis by some other parties, which is a bad idea.
It fits into one's portfolio only if you're looking for something that is
a big bet on NG price recovery with a huge amount of potential upside.
Or if you're using it as a small piece of a diversified put writing
portfolio, which is what I'm doing. I don't need the stock price to
rise to do well, I need little more than that they stay in business
and that the stock price stabilize at some point.
Ideal for me is if the stock price stabilizes long before the market's worries evaporate.

Jim
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (10) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Prev | Next | Next Thread

Announcements

Pencils of Promise - Back to School Drive
"Pencils of Promise works with communities across the globe to build schools and create programs that provide education opportunities for children."
Managing Your Wealth
Our own TMFHockeypop from Rule Your Retirement fame on the TV show Managing Your Wealth.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and "#1 Media Company to Work For" (BusinessInsider 2011)! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.
Advertisement