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Author: commoncents33 Big red star, 1000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 222463  
Subject: Re: Valuation à la Tilson Date: 12/5/2012 11:37 PM
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Jim, outstanding analysis as always. Thanks for sharing with us all of your many calculations, which obviously require much of your time, and the sharing of which does nothing for your investment returns.

One thing I would add: you use the price of investments as one of the cornerstones of determining value. You appropriately apply a discount factor of 0.8 to be conservative and account for cash. And there likely is no superior-but-reasonable-to-calculate metric.

Nevertheless, given that 1) during the earlier periods under consideration, investments accounted for a much higher proportion of calculated value than latter periods, 2) during the years surrounding the Great Bubble the relative price of those investments was far higher than currently, and 3) that what matters to us ultimately is value, rather than price...

...the growth in value over the past decade is even better than what your method calculates. Which makes the good even better.
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