No. of Recommendations: 41
Jim wrote:
Is timing doable for Zeelotes? Sure. I don't imagine many of us doubt that.
Is timing doable for the median fellow at the board here? Less certain.

Actually, since the middle of 2004 I've put a lot of time and effort into helping the members of this board as it relates to this question of timing. Granted, for the vast majority my success rate probably has not been all that high. But it has not been due to a lack of trying...

Maybe this will help. I've compiled a list of some of my timing-related posts and ranked them in their importance, as far as I see it. Those with a higher ranking almost certainly have some influence on the signals that you see above in the graph.

                    Title                         Date                 Data             Zee Rank                                                  Link
Trend Change Indicator #1: Market Breadth 7/30/2004 52Wk Highs-Lows 6
Trend Change Indicator #2: Volatility - VIX 7/30/2004 VIX / VXO 4
Macroeconomic Indicator: Yield Curve 8/3/2004 Treasuries 10
Great Bull Markets & the P/E Ratio 8/14/2004 P/E Ratio 4
Macroeconomic Indicator: Inflation Rate 8/18/2004 Inflation Rate 6
Trend Change Indicator #3: Volatility -- VXN 8/19/2004 VXN 3
Executive Summary: Conservative Investments 2/6/2005 PE Ratio, Yields & DR 4
Elan's Asset Allocation Method Backtested 2/9/2005 PE Ratio & Yields 3
Market Cycles & Asset Allocation Systems 2/13/2005 PE Ratio, Yields & DR 4
Backtest: MI Screens Using Technical Analysis 3/12/2005 Indexes 2
A Day of Pain or Opportunity? 10/6/2005 NYSE & Nasdaq Issues 8
Identifying Market Tops & Bottoms 4/13/2006 52Wk Highs-Lows 10
A Flight to Junk? 4/27/2006 VL Fundamental Data 10
A Flight to Junk or a Flight to Safety? 10/6/2006 VL Fundamental Data 10
Speculative - Defensive Indicator 10/11/2006 VL Fundamental Data 10
Nasdaq / NYSE Volume Indicator 1/30/2007 Indexes' Volume 2
A 90% Up Day Extreme Event 9/4/2007 Adv - Dec Data on Exchanges 9
The Hindenburg Omen 10/19/2007 52Wk Highs-Lows 10
Breadth Extremes -- Again! 12/18/2007 New Highs - New Lows 6
NYSE Bullish Percent Index 1/13/2008 $BPNYA from Stockcharts 5
Zee's Moose 1/29/2008 Price Data 8
Gold and Riding the Wave 3/24/2008 Price Data 7
Wave and DM Compared 3/30/2008 Price Data 5
Market musings on breadth and things... 4/2/2008 Index Issues 6
The Best & Simplest Bear Catcher 10/24/2008 New Highs - New Lows 10
NH-NL on Various Lists 5/10/2009 New Highs - New Lows 9
NYSE NH-NL Great Depression 5/21/2009 New Highs - New Lows 9
SMA Slope -- Great Depression 5/21/2009 Index Price 5
Dying Bullish Euphoria -- Great Depression 5/22/2009 Index Price 5

It is certainly true that to some degree many of the methods I've developed are a bit too complicated for the "median fellow" on the board here. But there are many indicators laid out in the posts above that are not all that difficult to follow. Probably the larger question is that most simply do not have the time or energy to pursue things that consume the amount of study and effort that some of my research entails. I can fully appreciate that. In fact, this is part of the reason why I've posted so little of my research on this forum since 2009.
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