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Author: Fuma102 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 24974  
Subject: Re: biotech 2011 pitches & running list... Date: 12/24/2010 2:38 AM
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Joseph,

curious what youre torn between, I'm in the same boat...

SQNM has legit potential for 2-3 bagging, at 8ish, but topped out around 25 at its previous most-hyped hype... No reason to think that it wont come close to that after it recently announced it plans on submitting data to the Journal of OBGYN. Negative data doesnt get published. And they are planning an larger trial that will probably have results announced Q3 next year. The hype monkey is going to be in full effect, including short squeezes. Expect concerns over the soon to be published trial using one illumina system and the yet to be completed trial using an updated illumina system. pay those concerns no mind.

IMGN was my baby, but Ive backed off it a bit. In talks with Heme / onc guys, they dont seem to think the side effects of the combination of the Herceptin and taxanes is that bad, and probably does not require an additional agent that reduces side effects (T-DM1). Ergo, the possibility of not being widespread adapted & royalties in the mid single digits isnt terribly impressive. Granted, this is a much larger than 2011 viewpoint, but I dont see the combination of 50 million in earnings and a half decent pipeline as a recipe for success - for biotech 2011. but then again, it was my discovery for a certain service. and i'm over it for the time being. not at current prices at least.

SGEN, on the other hand, I'm willing to play with. I've outlined this a few times.

GILD is another I'm contemplating. all the HIV meds belong to them. no, seriously. The interesting thing to be is the tobramycin / fosfomycin combo for COPD. Have to read more on this. Completely possible for a 30% bump this year, with much less risk than all of the above. did I mention a PE lower than Roche, Merck, and Pfizer? I managed to do well in 2009 and 2010 with an attempted homerun and a value play, GILD may well be it.

OPTR- still waiting for a solid pop.

stxs - still waiting for them to breaking single digit growth.

cbli- remains solid. just have not actually ran the numbers on sales yet.

INCY has gone kaboom, but may actually go higher. The first oral JAK inhibitor is clutch. Blood cancer with RA coming along- data in P2 for RA looks solid. Sarah, this should be on your ASCO watch list with any dips in early 2011. INCY has long term "this is huge" potential. With that said, I had sent an email to a few folks to watch INCY back in November. Looking at the chart, the run up prior to the rheumatology conference was ~2 months before hand.

.... hmmmm.

SQNM and... GILD? INCY? SGEN?
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