No. of Recommendations: 1
JWR, what do you think of John Bogle's statements a couple of weeks ago at a conference:

As we look ahead, I must mention my conviction that viewing the future through the prism of history is nowhere near as useful as the prism that takes into account the sources of stock returns. Of what use, for example, is history that reflects a dividend yield that averaged 5 percent —as in the past century—when the current dividend yield is 2.3 percent, less than half as much?

I urge those of you who rely on Monte Carlo simulations that rely only on historical stock returns either to exchange them for the kind of source-based analysis we’ve just gone through; or, alternatively, to calculate those Monte Carlo simulations using market returns excluding
dividend yields, and then add back today’s far lower dividend yield.

link to pdf file:
Print the post  


The Retirement Investing Board
This is the board for all discussions related to Investing for and during retirement. To keep the board relevant and Foolish to everyone, please avoid making any posts pertaining to political partisanship. Fool on and Retire on!
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.