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Author: LoudounSage Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76084  
Subject: Re: Today’s Safe Withdrawal Rates Date: 6/20/2008 7:38 PM
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JWR, what do you think of John Bogle's statements a couple of weeks ago at a conference:

*****
As we look ahead, I must mention my conviction that viewing the future through the prism of history is nowhere near as useful as the prism that takes into account the sources of stock returns. Of what use, for example, is history that reflects a dividend yield that averaged 5 percent —as in the past century—when the current dividend yield is 2.3 percent, less than half as much?

I urge those of you who rely on Monte Carlo simulations that rely only on historical stock returns either to exchange them for the kind of source-based analysis we’ve just gone through; or, alternatively, to calculate those Monte Carlo simulations using market returns excluding
dividend yields, and then add back today’s far lower dividend yield.
*****

link to pdf file:
http://johncbogle.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/f...
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