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Author: Crapshooter2 One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 3296  
Subject: KEY-TSE UPDATE Date: 4/17/2000 4:47 PM
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STOP THE BUS!! I WANT OFF!!

Just kidding................

What a ride! It's really hard saying good-bye to profits made over the last several months in the space of a few short days. However, I had to do some looking back over the past, in order to put this market carnage into some perspective.

I keep a spreadsheet of my investments, which I update at the end of every market day. I use it for many things, including this weekly update. I also keep a record of my weekly closing value of my entire portfolio, updated every Friday.

Looking back at this weekly record helped me immensly to cope with the shock of enduring a loss of total portfolio value of 47% in five days!

First, I wanted to know where in time I have regressed to with this drop. The answer is, my portfolio is the same value now as the week of November 19, 1999! That doesn't seem so bad, now does it?

Next, I compared my present value (as of Friday's close) to the highest value I achieved last spring. What I noticed is that last April was my highest value, not to be surpassed until November 12th. This meant my port went through gyrations similar to now, but milder, for 6 months, from April,99 to October, 99!

Amazing co-incidence, my port took a very large, 29% drop the week ended April 19, 1999! The next week, it rose 33%, but never surpased April 19, and declined again after that.

Now, compared to that 1st quarter, 1999, high on April 12, my port is ahead by 17.4%, even AFTER the recent downturn. Actually seems like i'm making progress, even comparing a low like now, to last springs HIGH!

Another way of looking at it: compared to exactly one year ago, week ended April 19, 1999, i'm up by an amazing 66%! Of course that was the week of last spring's 29% drop, but that is actually comparing apples to apples, now isn't it?

Bottom line is, I'm staying the course, thinking long term, and looking at this mess from a positive perspective! Hope all you Fools are doing the same.

There has been a LOT of new info and backtesting going on at the MI board, with the release of new backtest data on Keystone and Relative Strength screens going all the way back to 1969. This period covers the horrible bear markets of 1973-74 and 1980-81. This is great news for anyone using RS screens. If you are interested, go to the MI board and start reading. This has come out at a very good time, to give us the courage to stay on track!

This post started it all (on RS13), to be followed by other threads on RS26, RS52, and RS Overlap. There is much discussion about what it all means, and is important reading for anyone investing in screens:

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?id=1030013011543000&sort=id

I forgot to update the prices for the RS-TSE this weekend, will continue it's update next week.

WEEKLY PERCENTAGE CHANGE SUMMARY

___________THIS WEEK____YTD_____SINCE INCEPTION
KEY-TSE_____-46.54%____-38.13%_____-25.94%
RS-TSE_______0.00%_____-17.22%_____-21.74%
TSE300______-10.48%_____0.71%_______8.34%
S&P500______-10.49%____-7.62%______-3.61%


KEY-TSE

JDU -32.39%
RIM -61.99%
DSG -11.02%
CIC -76.76%
ANP -44.32%

Last Week's Update:

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?id=1050013000340000&sort=id

Screen Descriptions:

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?id=1050013000228000&sort=id

Crapshooter




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