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Author: TMFGebinr Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Supernova Phoenix 1
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Subject: Latest screen results Date: 2/15/2011 9:33 AM
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Hi everyone,

So, I've been learning a bit more about macro and VB programming and now my macro calculates the predicted price of a set of companies based on a 5% / 2.5% / 0% growth pattern (15% discount) AND then calculates the growth rate actually priced into the stock at the latest closing price. It still stops and waits for me to hit the enter key each time (the tail end of the Excel Solver routine), but that's much improved over having to do the whole Solver part myself. :-)

So I ran this and picked companies that had predicted prices higher than last price (did you know you can sort by color in Excel?) and then picked those that had at least $400 million in ttm FCF. Then I ranked them from lowest to highest implied growth pattern.

Of course, running this kind of screen in the middle of earnings season isn't 100% effective, because my data source (Capital IQ) often doesn't have FCF numbers in after the company reports earnings, at least until the 10-Q or -K come out, unless the company gave it in the press release. So a bunch of companies show up with "zero" ttm FCF until those numbers get filled in.

Anyway, here are the results, and I'm going to be digging into several of these over the next while, looking for more companies to add to the MUE portfolio.

Cheers,
Jim

                                                                              5 / 2.5 / 0
Company Industry TTM FCF Last Pred price 1-5 5-10 Term
Dex One (NYSE:DEXO) Publishing $531 $6.27 $90.15 -57.8% -28.9% 0.0%
SUPERVALU (NYSE:SVU) Food Retail $744 $8.14 $29.81 -23.0% -11.5% 0.0%
Valassis Communications (NYSE:VCI) Publishing $460 $32.49 $78.84 -13.7% -6.9% 0.0%
ITT Educational Services (NYSE:ESI) Education Services $526 $68.08 $148.84 -11.5% -5.7% 0.0%
Domtar (NYSE:UFS) Paper Products $1,013 $93.15 $202.92 -11.4% -5.7% 0.0%
NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG) Independent Power Pro $1,303 $20.63 $44.23 -11.0% -5.5% 0.0%

Micron Technology (NasdaqGS:MU) Semiconductors $2,483 $11.65 $21.16 -7.5% -3.7% 0.0%
AOL (NYSE:AOL) Internet Software and $497 $21.83 $39.52 -7.4% -3.7% 0.0%
Alliance Data Systems (NYSE:ADS) Data Processing and O $834 $79.88 $136.47 -6.2% -3.1% 0.0%
Sprint Nextel (NYSE:S) Wireless Telecommunic $2,880 $4.55 $8.18 -7.2% -3.6% 0.0%
Sunoco (NYSE:SUN) Oil and Gas Refining $922 $42.84 $64.93 -3.6% -1.8% 0.0%

H&R Block (NYSE:HRB) Specialized Consumer $707 $13.20 $19.69 -3.3% -1.6% 0.0%
Navistar International (NYSE:NAV) Construction and Farm $828 $65.56 $97.94 -3.3% -1.7% 0.0%
Dr Pepper Snapple Group (NYSE:DPS) Soft Drinks $1,439 $33.73 $53.27 -4.5% -2.2% 0.0%
Cephalon (NasdaqGS:CEPH) Biotechnology $724 $58.98 $81.21 -1.6% -0.8% 0.0%
Safeway (NYSE:SWY) Food Retail $1,305 $21.68 $29.73 -1.5% -0.8% 0.0%

Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ) Integrated Telecommun $16,905 $35.90 $50.79 -2.2% -1.1% 0.0%
Integrys Energy Group (NYSE:TEG) Multi-Utilities $598 $49.25 $65.93 -1.0% -0.5% 0.0%
Xerox (NYSE:XRX) Office Electronics $2,371 $11.03 $14.41 -0.5% -0.3% 0.0%
R.R. Donnelley & Sons (NasdaqGS:RRD) Commercial Printing $601 $18.76 $24.72 -0.7% -0.4% 0.0%
Qwest Communications (NYSE:Q) Integrated Telecommun $1,879 $7.42 $9.20 0.6% 0.3% 0.0%

Teradyne (NYSE:TER) Semiconductor Equipme $491 $18.20 $22.95 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
GameStop (NYSE:GME) Computer and Electron $451 $19.87 $25.31 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
URS (NYSE:URS) Construction and Engi $516 $46.77 $54.65 1.8% 0.9% 0.0%
L-3 Communications (NYSE:LLL) Aerospace and Defense $1,280 $79.42 $97.07 0.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Lender Processing Services (NYSE:LPS) Data Processing and O $408 $33.30 $39.03 1.7% 0.9% 0.0%

Apollo Group (NasdaqGS:APOL) Education Services $873 $43.07 $51.77 1.2% 0.6% 0.0%
Macy's (NYSE:M) Department Stores $1,370 $23.87 $27.48 2.1% 1.1% 0.0%
TRW Automotive Holdings (NYSE:TRW) Auto Parts and Equipm $954 $61.02 $67.25 3.0% 1.5% 0.0%
DR Horton (NYSE:DHI) Homebuilding $519 $12.46 $13.79 2.9% 1.5% 0.0%
DPL (NYSE:DPL) Electric Utilities $416 $26.37 $29.69 2.6% 1.3% 0.0%

Garmin (NasdaqGS:GRMN) Consumer Electronics $795 $32.50 $34.93 3.5% 1.8% 0.0%
The Washington Post (NYSE:WPO) Publishing $459 $432.08 $461.47 3.6% 1.8% 0.0%
Dell (NasdaqGS:DELL) Computer Hardware $3,352 $14.09 $14.75 4.1% 2.0% 0.0%
Western Digital (NYSE:WDC) Computer Storage and $1,034 $34.66 $37.85 3.2% 1.6% 0.0%
Community Health Systems (NYSE:CYH) Healthcare Facilities $406 $37.63 $38.09 4.8% 2.4% 0.0%

Motorola (NYSE:MSI) Communications Equipm $1,632 $39.03 $41.27 3.9% 1.9% 0.0%
Ford Motor (NYSE:F) Automobile Manufactur $6,682 $16.09 $16.34 4.7% 2.3% 0.0%
Calpine (NYSE:CPN) Independent Power Pro $777 $14.30 $14.85 4.2% 2.1% 0.0%
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