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Author: psuasskicker6 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 5887  
Subject: Learning how to bet football Date: 9/12/2006 11:47 AM
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One of the things I wanted to do at some point this year or next is learn how to understand how lines are formed, then how to take advantage of them. Betting sports should be like playing poker in a way, cause you're playing an opponent, not the house. So theoretically a knowledgable bettor should have an edge, hence an EV+ expectation. I feel like I'm very well versed in football, but not great at figuring out how to read spreads and pick who will cover.

Does anyone know of any good books out there, or other reference guides, that I could grab to help me learn this? I'd really like to take a chunk of my poker bankroll next year and shift it over to football betting.

- C -
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Author: TheNajdorfDefens Big funky green star, 20000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 629 of 5887
Subject: Re: Learning how to bet football Date: 9/12/2006 12:13 PM
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Read Sharp Sports Betting, but you've hit the nail on the head -- short the public. Now the public isn't always right, nor are the sharps always wrong [the Dallas line moved FIVE points in Dallas' favor last week, you need both sharps and squares to do that!], but there's a reason the public isn't living in mansions in Vegas and owning sportsbooks.

Teams like Duke, Pats, ND, Dallas are perenially overbet. Just look at this past w/e, Buffalo was getting 9.5-10 pts, they were up 10 on NE, etc.

Naj

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Author: JimZipCode Big funky green star, 20000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 630 of 5887
Subject: Re: Learning how to bet football Date: 9/12/2006 12:26 PM
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Read Sharp Sports Betting, but you've hit the nail on the head -- short the public. ... Teams like Duke, Pats, ND, Dallas are perenially overbet. Just look at this past w/e, Buffalo was getting 9.5-10 pts, they were up 10 on NE, etc.


Steelers too, maybe?

But there are only some game which "the public" takes an interest, right? Most games -- like say New Orleans v Green Bay or Rams v Niners -- are only bet by a smaller subset of people?

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Author: Hawkwin Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 633 of 5887
Subject: Re: Learning how to bet football Date: 9/12/2006 1:42 PM
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Does anyone know of any good books out there, or other reference guides

I was at Barnes and Nobles over the weekend looking for exactly such a book and found nothing. Rather odd to see books on horse betting and poker but nothing on sports - I assume due to it being "questionable" in many states.

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Author: TheNajdorfDefens Big funky green star, 20000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 634 of 5887
Subject: Re: Learning how to bet football Date: 9/12/2006 1:45 PM
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But there are only some game which "the public" takes an interest, right? Most games -- like say New Orleans v Green Bay or Rams v Niners -- are only bet by a smaller subset of people?


Well, it depends on % and volume, if interest is small, but 90% are on the Saints, then...


Naj

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