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Author: PosFCF Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 46802  
Subject: Re: Mr. Softy's generosity Date: 1/25/2004 10:45 AM
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LeBean

Oh yeah, now I remember, you do not consider growth in your computations

Not true, but I do acknowledge my foreward looking eyesight is far too limited for all the guesstimates required of the DCF approach.

This simple ole redneck just likes to ask the question: "If ya just keep gettin' what yer gettin', will ya be happy with the results?" Hence the approach of evaluating if I like the cash flow performance for the last 12 months at the price I'd have to pay for it today. And just thinking to myself: "Just do it agin this year!"

FCFE.....(FCFE being cash flows from operating activities less capital expenditures plus net borrowing on interest bearing debt.)

Well, one I don't use DCF, 'cause of the aforementioned vision problems; and two, that formula is just so much nonsense to me it is unbelievable it is even put forth! I've given my thoughts on not having a formula that treats depreciation and capex in a way that, by default, favors the capex expenditures when analysing cash flows. After all, capex is an optional use of cash flows. If the company chose to do only enough capex to match the wear and tear of productive capacity, then all the other cash (from the freed up excess capex) would be available to the management to perhaps distribute to shareholders as dividends. I think that formula (and the approach behind it) is just so much inanity in calculations that I just plain don't see any value in it 'tall. I mean, really, adding net borrowing, even if you borrow more then you pay off, to the free cash flow to anything!?! Virtually borders on the ludicrous for describing anything of use to me. But then, that's what makes a market, eh? Rednecks and mermaid watchers and all!

I suppose I should quickly sell off my MSFT shares and back up the truck on CCL shares. :-)

Not recommending anybody do anything but treat my ideas as they would the ideas of any other redneck.....with a little distaste, a little pity, a little compassion.

But then, since the time I posted my "technical analysis" call on CCL here (what? two months ago, now?), if we compare CCL's price performance to MSFT's on the following 3 month price chart, I suspect there might've been an OK outcome if one had sold the beefy Softie and bought the ugly Carnival:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=3m&s=CCL&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=msft

It could've been just a lucky coincidence of timing, so maybe the one year chart will give a more accurate read: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CCL&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=msft

Even pretty close over 5 years, no?:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CCL&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=msft

Now, I'll give ya, over the "max" period, MSFT has it, hands (or, hooves, if you will) down, but then again, my grandma used to be young too!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CCL&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=msft

Certainly, though, the performance recently and over the last several years, as reflected by the price charts, doesn't seem to indicate that Softie's beefiness is given the respect it deserves.....or, maybe it is?

PosFCF




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