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Author: WatchingTheHerd Big red star, 1000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 478156  
Subject: Re: college class Date: 9/25/2008 1:00 AM
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Let's keep an open mind about the future. Dogmatic views are generally wrong, at least for a while. Thinking back, I can't think of many things I've even been right about when it comes to investing. I was 20 years early to the peak oil party.... how on earth could I have profited from it with that kind of timing. Think of what's happened since the time I took that college class in 1989.... I assure you, lots of bad times and good times in the markets since then, even several wars. But somehow it seems like we've done ok.

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I agree with this idea and second the question in davidMN's prior post. There are major chunks of this crisis and the dollar values associated with it that don't add up.

I've heard one number floating around recently that said the average "cost" of whatever this bailout winds up being is about $10,000 per taxpaying family.

I look at that in contrast with what I'm anticipating the hit to be on my net worth in the coming year and think --- "Where do I pay $10,000 and keep the rest of my stuff?"

Part of the answer is that the true nominal figure for the worthless credit propping up all asset values is actually not $700 billion, but TRILLIONS. I think the reason I'm so worried about passage of this panic-stricken program is not that it alone can't work (I KNOW it alone cannot safely unwind us back to a healthy state) but that the rest of the investing world will look at this sham and finally throw up their hands and say "We're outta there -- those Americans have clearly reached the pinnacle of LSD technology."

In terms of keeping an open mind, I think about this...

As much as we fear becoming financially crippled in a new global economy with players like China and India able to play the population card to overwhelm us with productivity (and thereby growth), those stories aren't all roses either. Quick -- name a country that after getting caught spiking dog food sold overseas with toxic chemicals to inflate "protein" measurements decided "Well, we can't fool them Americans, maybe we can try it on our own INFANT FORMULA." (#1) Quick --- name a country in which recently laid off workers rioted and killed the CEO of their former employer. (#2)

We aren't the only ones with problems. The only question is whether we have enough sense to aim down the middle, avoid political and financial extremes, and re-learn some lessons painfully learned decades ago then willfully forgotton. There are many other countries that haven't learned the lessons the first time.


WTH

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#1) http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-milk16-2...

#2) http://www.indianexpress.com/news/136-charged-with-murder-of...
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