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Let's see. The commentators on the commentators are saying that the market is saying X, therefore -- if one is a contrarian--, then not-X must be the case, right?

But if one is truly a contrarian's contrarian, then, of course, X is the case after all.

I just see it all saying that if a lot of commentators and market participants are saying that the long bond is headed down and it is a rotten time to buy, one can easily surmise that they already would have taken positions based upon those opinions. If that is true, then the selling may already have occured and the potential surprises could be on the upside, especially with expectations being so low.

I honestly don't know if contrary opinion indicators can be successfully implied with bonds the way they can with equities. it seems reasonable enough though. A lack of disagreement usually indicates a probability that is being mispriced by market participants. It takes lots of informed and motivated buyers and sellers to have the most efficient marketplace. When either side gets too anxious, opportunities may arise. That is my operating hypothesis, anyway.

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